A Dangerous Shift in Northeast Syria

After the Syrian Government took much of Northeast Syria by force, a fragile ceasefire has offered a momentary pause. But beneath the surface, the future of the country, and especially the future of religious and ethnic minorities, remains deeply uncertain. 

In a recent interview on Washington Watch with Tony Perkins, Nadine Maenza, Senior Advisor to Shai Fund and co-chair of the International Religious Freedom Roundtable, warned that Syria is approaching a critical turning point. Decisions made now by the United States and the international community will determine whether Syria moves toward stability or slides back into violence, extremism, and repression.

For years, Northeast Syria stood out as a rare exception in a country devastated by war. Local communities built systems of self-governance that included Christians, Kurds, Yazidis, and other minorities. Religious freedom flourished in ways unseen elsewhere in the region. Churches reopened. Communities cooperated. Violence between religious groups largely disappeared. 

That fragile model is now under threat. 

The Time is Now 

Despite public claims of stability, recent attacks by Syrian government forces raise concerns about a return to centralized, authoritarian control. The Syrian government has yet to form the inclusive leadership it promised, while pressure from Islamist factions within its security forces continues to grow. 

The government in Syria and affiliated militias have a long history of targeting religious minorities. While the new leadership has pledged to form an inclusive government, those promises have yet to materialize. Most senior positions remain concentrated in the hands of Sunni Arab leadership, with minimal minority representation. 

Meanwhile, pressure is mounting from Islamist factions within Syria’s security forces, including groups with documented records of human rights abuses. Without strong international pressure, the space for minorities to live freely and safely continues to shrink. 

The Case for Local Governance 

At this stage, Shai Fund has been continually pushing for the assurance of local representation in leadership and local security forces as Syria’s best chance for lasting stability. 

Regions like Northeast Syria and Suwayda already maintain their own governance and local security structures rooted in their communities. These systems have proven effective at preventing sectarian violence and protecting vulnerable populations. 

 If local governance is dismantled there, it sends a clear message about what awaits other minority regions. Conversely, protecting religious minorities and local autonomy could provide a roadmap for national reconciliation. 

Shai Fund’s Commitment 

Shai Fund remains committed to supporting policies that protect religious groups and other vulnerable communities in Syria. Religious freedom is not a secondary issue. It is foundational to peace, stability, and human dignity. 

This moment demands clarity, courage, and action. Without strong protections now, the communities that have survived war, displacement, and persecution may once again be forced to flee. The window to act is narrow, but the cost of inaction will be devastating.